The left-right grand coalition government in northern Cyprus has collapsed due to its failure to deliver on exactly what it promised to do in the first place: undertake long-overdue reforms and achieve the restructuring of the Turkish Cypriot public administration. Was it a big surprise? Unfortunately, no.

Grand coalitions are peculiar and difficult undertakings in politics. On the one hand, failure would consolidate marginal parties, as the strongest parties on both the left and right spectrum might be compelled to shoulder the burden of the failure together. On the other hand, when both left and right can no longer be the alternative of the other or if and when people develop the perception that there is no longer any hope on outstanding problems, a search starts for “untested” alternatives. Thus, once such coalitions fail, marginal parties emerge as the new hope of the country. Remember what happened in 1999-2001 in Turkey and how the Islamist and rather marginal Justice and Development Party (AKP) came out of nowhere 13 years ago to gain power with a landslide and gradually consolidate itself as a majoritarian government.

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